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      Department of Economics Research

      Abstract Report 2020

The Effect of Land Size and Market Distortions on Bolivian Farmers

Access to more land may not lead to income gains for smaller farms in Bolivia. Restrictions on the use of land as collateral cause imperfections in credit and labor markets that lead to lower income as farms reach the institutional threshold for the land’s collateralization.

Sponsors: State of Oklahoma, Oklahoma Department of Human Services

PI/PDs: Lee C. Adkins, Bidisha Lahiri

Oklahoma Department of Human Services: Naneida Lazarte-Alcala


Unauthorized Immigration: the theoretical effects of a dual labor market

The effects on wages, employment, and output in an economy where unskilled labor is employed solely in labor intensive occupations are explored using a two-sector general equilibrium model.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma

PI/PD: Lee C. Adkins


A Shrinkage Estimator for Endogenous Regressor Models and Weak Instruments. A shrinkage estimator is proposed that takes a convex combination of two-stage least squares and efficient 2-step GMM estimators. Shrinkage is controlled based on FEFF (see Andrews, 2018).

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma

PI/PD: Lee C. Adkins


What’s the Buzz? Sonic representations of the business cycle

There are various numerical and graphical ways that cyclical economic data are characterized and studied. In this research, waveforms that characterize fluctuations in macroeconomic data are converted to sound waves, which produce different harmonics based on spectral information contained within their cyclic content.  

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma

PI/PD: Lee C. Adkins


The Gender Gap in Undergraduate Economics Course Persistence and Degree Selection

This study examines male and female course persistence and choice of economics degree via a combination of student, instructor, and structural characteristics. We find that students of both genders who declare economics as their major are more likely to take additional economics courses than their non-major peers. Additionally, students’ economics grades are a significant determinant of course persistence and degree selection, but men and women respond somewhat differently to their absolute and relative grades. Finally, men’s economics degree selection is significantly correlated with their math abilities, while women’s economics degree selection is correlated with both their math and verbal aptitudes.

Sponsor: University of Delaware

PI/PD: Laura J. Ahlstrom


Navigating the Economics Major: Gender and Students’ Degree Pathways

Although nationwide a small percentage of students complete an economics degree, many students who initially select another major switch into economics or add it as a second major. The purpose of this study is to assess gender differences in students’ economics degree attainment based on differences in students’ initial major selections and grades received in their introductory microeconomics course. Findings indicate that both male and female students who initially choose to major in economics have a high probability of graduating with an economics major. Male and female students also respond differently to their absolute and relative introductory microeconomics grades.

Sponsor: University of Delaware

PI/PD: Laura J. Ahlstrom


Does Taking a Principles of Economics Course Online Influence Student Performance in Intermediate Economics Courses?

Prior research indicates that the grade a student receives in a face-to-face introductory economics course is a good predictor of success in intermediate economics courses. Using data from administrative records for students who took economics courses at a land-grant university, this study analyzes the effect that completing an online introductory microeconomics course has on student performance in intermediate microeconomics. Findings indicate significant differential effects by gender for the correlation between taking principles of microeconomics online and the grade received in intermediate microeconomics.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PD: Laura J. Ahlstrom


Women in the Finance Major: Gender Disparities in Finance Course Completion and Degree Attainment

This study assesses the gender gap in undergraduate students’ finance course persistence, defined as taking an additional finance course after completing an initial course, as well as gender disparities in students’ finance degree selection. The research is guided by the following question: How do student, instructor, and structural (class) characteristics differentially affect gender persistence in taking finance courses and the propensity to earn a finance degree?

Sponsor: University of Delaware

PI/PD: Laura J. Ahlstrom


Instructor Gender and Student Performance in Introductory Economics Courses: Is There a Role Model Effect?

Past research in economic education has revealed a gender gap in undergraduate economics. Studies also show that the quality of the instructor leads to better outcomes for students and that instructors can act as role models for students. Our study examines the role model effect in the context of the gender gap in achievement in introductory collegiate economics courses. Using an ordered regression, we find that female students perform significantly better in introductory economics courses when taught by female instructors while controlling for other variables.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PD: Laura J. Ahlstrom


Super Bowl Participation and the Local Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market

This paper assesses the impact of a home team's participation in the Super Bowl on the local economy. We compare the winning and losing cities of the NFL conference championship games under the assumption of similar pre-trends. We show that the post-event trends in winning and losing cities diverge despite their similar trends before the end of the regular season. Our empirical results indicate that winning the NFL conference championship game, thus the opportunity to compete in the Super Bowl, has a positive, significant effect on the manufacturing and FIRE (finance, insurance, and real estate) sectors.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Clark University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Clark University: Junfu Zhang


Polycentric Urban Structure and Innovation: Evidence from a Panel of Chinese Cities

This study investigates the relationship between a city’s polycentric urban structure and its innovation capacity by using a panel dataset containing 267 Chinese cities at the prefecture-level and above from 2006 to 2016. Our empirical results based on two-way fixed effects panel regression models show that the degree of polycentricity of a city’s urban spatial structure has a significant and negative association with its innovation capacity. The empirical results indicate the need to rethink and reevaluate the current movement of “planned polycentrism” in the Chinese context.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Southeast University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Southeast University: Yingcheng Li


“Ghost Cities” versus Boom Towns: When Do China’s HSR New Towns Thrive?

In China, local governments often build ``new towns'' anchored in locations with new high-speed rail (HSR) stations to foster urban economic growth. While some HSR new towns have gained economic activities, others have been vacant for years and became “ghost towns.” This study explores the determinants of this heterogeneity in the urban vibrancy of HSR new towns. The study provides novel insights into the role of 2nd nature geography forces such as market access and agglomeration spillovers through the HSR network in sustaining new town development.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Johns Hopkins University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Lei Dong, Carlo Ratti, Siqi Zheng

Johns Hopkins University: Matthew Kahn


The Network Effect of Air Pollution: Evidence from the Housing Market in China

This paper examines the housing market reaction to changes in the non-local housing investor attention due to the degraded air quality. Based on a sample of 39 prefectural-level cities in China, we document a strong positive effect of local air pollution on housing prices in other cities, which reflects investors’ propensity to make out-of-town purchases. A city’s out-of-town housing attention increases dramatically following heavily polluted days in the local area.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Central University of Finance and Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Central University of Finance and Economics: Weizeng Sun

Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Siqi Zheng

Zhejiang University: Zhaoyingzi Dong


International Travel Cost and Entrepreneurship Comovement

Despite the rapid advances in digital communication tools, information exchange and the transmission of tacit knowledge via in-person interactions are still of great importance to entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. Using new international non-stop flight routes as a natural experiment, this article examines whether a reduction in international travel cost increases the comovement of new firm formation in connected cities across different countries. Using panel data at the U.S.-China city-pair level from 1990-2017, we demonstrate that a reduction in information frictions induced by geography has a substantial positive impact on business matches between entrepreneurs and investors of the two countries. The evidence confirms the importance of efficient transportation networks in facilitating information exchange and long-range business matches.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Wang Jin


Proximity, Knowledge Diffusion, and Technology Similarity: Evidence from the High-speed Rail in China

Using the high-speed rail (HSR) expansion in China as a natural experiment, this paper identifies the effect of travel cost reduction due to HSR connection between cities on technology similarity. We are able to identify similar effects using a wall-city instrumental variable approach based on the minimum cost spanning tree. The effect is stronger for cities that are farther away to each other in distance but closer to each other in technology space. Our findings highlight the role of travel cost in influencing regional knowledge diffusion and technology space integration.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Southeast University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Southeast University: Yingcheng Li


Ridehailing, Regulation, and Urban Traffic: A New York City Case

It remains unclear whether the rapid growth of ridehailing services such as Uber and Lyft is to blame for the aggravation of traffic congestion. While ridesourcing is barely regulated, New York City (NYC) issued a series of laws to restrict the operation of ridesourcing services in 2018 and 2019. This study uses street-level speed records for NYC, obtained from the Uber Movement, to investigate the impact of these regulations on traffic. Suggesting that the urban traffic impact is mainly driven by how the regulation influences the scale and operational characteristics of the ridehailing companies.The findings of this study shed light on the institution of regulations targeting emerging urban mobility forms

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Rutgers University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Rutgers University: Annie Lee, Sicheng Wang


State Business Incentives, Firm Demographics, and Innovation

Technology-based, innovation-driven startups are central to regional productivity, economic development, and job creation in the United States. State and local governments offer numerous and varied programs, financial incentives, and tax breaks to promote innovation-driven entrepreneurship and attract high-growth startups. This paper examines how the dynamics in the state governmental provision of financial and tax incentives influence the age distribution of innovation-driven startups. We further investigate the distributional effects of the firm age distribution on innovation activities.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Southeast University

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Southeast University: Yingcheng Li


Quiet Restaurants and Massage Stores near Power Centers: The Externalities of China's Corruption Crackdown

China's recent ``Eight Point Regulation'' imposes harsh austerity measures on the spending of government officials. Exploiting data from a large online retail store review platform and the spatial variations in retail store locations relative to the power centers, we take a spatial difference-in-differences approach to investigate the impact of the corruption crackdown on extravagant spending at local stores in Beijing. Taken together, our results suggest that the anti-corruption campaign is effective at curbing corruption-induced extravagance but also creates substantial negative externalities on lower-end retail stores in the vicinity of power centers.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Central University of Finance and Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Central University of Finance and Economics: Weizeng Sun

Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Jianghao Wang, Siqi Zheng


College Location and Migration: Evidence from China’s Higher Education Expansion

Using college enrollment data and the 1% national sample-census population data, this paper examines the impact of college education expansion on individual decisions about education and mobility. Our findings suggest that college location impacts college graduates’ geographic mobility in an equally important way as college education does.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Jinan University, Dickinson College

PI/PDs: Rui Du

Jinan University: Shu Cai

Dickinson College: Xiaozhou Ding


The effect of trade liberalization on marriage and fertility: Evidence from Indian Districts

We examine the medium-run (1991-2001) and long-run (1991-2011) impacts of the 1991 trade liberalization in India on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15-34 years. We exploit the fact that the countrywide tariff reductions varied across industries creating exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial industrial composition of the district. We find that districts that were more exposed to tariff cuts witnessed a larger increase in the marriage rate, especially in urban areas. On average, the trade reform had no negative impact on the employment of young men and women.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Mehtabul Azam, Shruti Sengupta


Trade Liberalization and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Indian Census

We use the 2011 Indian census data, and exploit the exogeneous nature of Indian trade liberalization and cohorts that attended school before and after the reforms to implement a Difference-in-Difference strategy to estimate the impact of trade-liberalization on human capital accumulation. We also construct a district-level panel data that covers 1981-2011, and use a Difference-in-Difference strategy to get an alternative estimate of the impact of Indian trade liberalization on human capital accumulation. We find that no evidence of trade-liberalization on attainment of different stages of schooling.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PD: Mehtabul Azam


Household Cooking Fuel Choice in India, 2004-2012: A Panel Multinomial Analysis

Using household level panel data, we examine factors driving the cooking fuel choice in urban and rural India, separately. We find that a clean-break with the use of traditional fuels is less likely in rural areas, but more probable in urban areas. The household characteristics (e.g. income, education) that are positively correlated with use of clean fuel also increases the probability of fuel stacking for rural households. We also find that access to paved road is an important determinant for rural household adopting clean fuel, and there exists evidence of social spillover effects in rural areas.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Mehtabul Azam, Ying-Min Kuo


Household Income Mobility in India, 1993-2011

Using longitudinal data, we examine income mobility among rural Indian households over 1993-2004 and 2004-2011. Absolute measures of mobility suggest higher income mobility during 2004-2011 compared to 1993-2004, and each social group witnessed higher income mobility over 2004-2011. Importantly, significant differentials in income mobility exist across the Hindu castes in both the time intervals. We also find that conditional on having similar rankings in base period national income distribution, urban households have higher probability to improve their rankings in national income distribution. We find similar patterns in social group differentials in mobility over 2004-2011 using the consumption expenditure as a measure of well-being.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PD: Mehtabul Azam


Oklahoma Oil and Gas Severance Taxes: A Comparative Analysis

Oklahoma assesses a production tax of seven percent on the extraction of oil, natural gas, and other minerals. However, since July 2002, it has taxed production from horizontal wells at only one percent for the first 48 months of production. This is a significant tax incentive relative to its neighboring states, Texas and Kansas, particularly considering the limited evidence as to the effectiveness of severance tax incentives for increasing in-state development of immobile resources. This paper empirically examines whether the severance tax incentive has encouraged horizontal development in Oklahoma relative to Texas and Kansas. Our findings indicate that the Oklahoma tax exemption has not had a significant influence on horizontal drilling.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Mary N. Gade, Karen Maguire, Francis Makamu


Tax Increment Financing and Spatial Spillovers in Oklahoma City: Estimating the Localized Marginal Effects of Proximity to TIF Districts

Tax increment finance (TIF) has become a critical component of local economic development policy over the last six decades. Existing literature has focused on isolating the growth effects of TIF adoption within a linear spatial model. Similar to previous research, we are interested in the spillover effects of a TIF regime. Our findings suggest that much care should be taken when drawing TIF boundaries, recognizing that a small but potentially important subset of parcels could be relegated to the outside of the development zone and left without access to the public support that similar parcels inside the TIF are afforded.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University; Oklahoma City University

PI/PDs: Mary N. Gade

Oklahoma City University: Jacob Dearmon, Russell Evans


A Localized Analysis of Property Tax Incidence Across Space and Time

Property taxes persist as an important source of local government revenue in spite of public distaste for the tax and academic disagreement over the economic incidence of the levy. This paper extends and explores the hypothesis that the incidence of the property tax may vary across jurisdictions. We pool observations from 17 independent school districts in Oklahoma County, Oklahoma across 27 years (1982-2008) and investigate the responsiveness of the tax base to changes in the jurisdiction’s tax rate relative to the county average.We find evidence that the economic incidence varies across jurisdictions, across time within a jurisdiction, and across specific property tax levies (public schools vs. career tech) within a jurisdiction.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Oklahoma City University

PI/PDs: Mary N. Gade

Oklahoma City University: Russell Evans


Child Marriage and the Role of Brides: Descriptive Evidence from Six West African Countries

Although almost universally banned, child (under the age of 18) remains a pervasive issue throughout the world. In this study, we quantify the importance of the child marriage problem, on which evidence remains surprisingly scarce. To do so, we use data we collected in Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger – six West African countries where child marriage rates are particularly high. This extensive dataset allows us to compare the characteristics of girls based on their age when they first married.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Paris-Dauphine University, Paris School of Economics, The World Bank

PI/PDs: Harounan Kazianga

Paris-Dauphine University: Olivia Bertelli, Elise Huillery

Paris School of Economics: Bastien Michel

C4ED: Markus Olapade

The World Bank: Estelle Koussoubé, Léa Rouanet


Impact Assessment of the West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program: Evidence from Ghana, Senegal and Mali

Agricultural technology adoption in African nations has been considerably low even when a large fraction of the population depends on agriculture. We study how the diffusion of agricultural technology package affected farmers in Ghana, Senegal and Mali. Results show that the program has increased technology dissemination in the treated villages by 34.9% and adoption of improved variety of seeds increased by 24.6%. We also find that there is a significant effect on productivity and treated households were found to have significant increase in revenue.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University; University of Ouagadougou, West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development

PI/PDs: Harounan Kazianga, Anurag Deb

University of Ouagadougou: Yiriyibin Bambio


Agricultural Transformation and Farmers' Expectations: Randomized Experimental Evidence from Uganda

Adoption rate of profitable agricultural technologies in Africa is still low and knowledge gaps remain on why that is the case. We exploit the randomized roll-out of a national extension service program to specifically investigate the role of farmers' expectations in crop adoption decisions and the extent to which ex-ante beliefs about crop profitability (i.e. price and yield expectations) explain the resulting outcomes. We find that randomly assigned extension services increase oilseeds adoption by 15% and those farmers who under-estimate the oilseeds price at baseline are the most likely to adopt the new crops.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University; University di Milano--Bicocca, Centro Studi L.d'Agliano,

PI/PDs: Harounan Kazianga

Universita di Milano--Bicocca, Centro Studi L.d'Agliano: Jacopo Bonan, Mariapia Mendola


Will Urban Migrants Formally Insure their Rural Relatives? Family Networks and Rainfall Index Insurance in Burkina Faso

Large segments of the population in developing countries are vulnerable to weather-related shocks but have limited means to insure themselves against them. Urban migrants were offered, at the prevailing market price, a rainfall index insurance product that can potentially protect their rural relatives from adverse weather shocks. The product had an uptake of 22% during the two-week subscription window. Half the urban migrants in the study were randomly offered an insurance policy in which payouts would be made, not to the subscriber, but directly to the intended beneficiary. This feature increased uptake rates by 17-22 percentage points.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, University of Kent

PI/PDs: Harounan Kazianga

University of Kent: Zaki Wahhaj


The Long-Term Impacts of Girl-Friendly Schools: Evidence from the BRIGHT School Construction Program in Burkina Faso

We evaluate the long-term effects of a “girl-friendly” primary school program in Burkina Faso, using a regression discontinuity design. Ten years later, primary school-age children in villages selected for the program attend school more often and score significantly higher on standardized tests. Secondary-school–age youths and young adults complete primary and secondary school at higher rates and perform significantly better on standardized tests. Women old enough to have completed secondary school delay both marriage and childbearing.

Sponsors: Oklahoma Stata University, University Texas, Mathematics Policy Research

PI/PDs: Harounan Kazianga

University of Texas: Leigh Linden

Mathematics Policy Research: Nicholas Ingwersen, Arif Mamun, Ali Protik, Matt Sloan


Stock Returns and Mutual Fund Flows in the Korean Financial Market: A System Approach

This paper investigates dynamic and causal relations between stock returns and mutual fund flows in Korea using a system method which utilizes information from the stock, bond, and money markets. The empirical evidence from the system method indicates that fund flows do not respond to eliminate the deviation from long-run equilibrium, and stock prices cause net fund flows in the Korean market, implying that investors move their money to the securities that yield higher returns to rebalance their investment portfolios in the short-run.

Sponsors: State of Oklahoma and The Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea

PI/PDs: J.B. Kim

The Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea: Jung-Min Kim


A Link between Financial Development and Economic Growth of OECD Countries: A System Approach

This paper investigates the dynamic and causal relationships between financial development and economic growth in a system method. The system method with cross sectional correlation utilizes information from highly integrated financial markets and economies for OECD countries. Though the empirical evidence from SURECM and Granger causality test in the system is somewhat sensitive to the financial proxies, it shows that, in sharp contrast to the ordinary method, the financial developments are weakly exogenous and do not respond to eliminate the deviation from long-run equilibrium. Moreover, our results show that financial sectors develop as a consequence of economic growth which in turn feedback as a stimulant to real growth for most cases.

Sponsors: State of Oklahoma, University of Minnesota at Duluth

PI/PDs: J.B. Kim

University of Minnesota at Duluth: Ariuna Taivan


Effect of India's demonetization move on Trade using synthetic control method

The Indian economy has a large segment of small businesses as well as a significant informal sector which were primarily cash based. The government’s surprise move to invalidate existing currencies overnight in an attempt to clear unaccounted cash flows affected the day to day operations for a large segment of domestic producers. We examine the impact of this policy on exports and imports with the expectation of the effect to be stronger in the short run than the long run as the economy adjust to the new system.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Bidisha Lahiri, Anurag Deb


"Effect of Prenatal Care visits on Antenatal Outcomes: A survival model analysis”

The number of weeks of pregnancy at which antenatal care was first received, the number times of antenatal care was received and whether antenatal care was received in the last three months of pregnancy are three important but similar indicators of antenatal care received during a given pregnancy. We examine the impact of each of these variables on several outcomes such as whether the delivery was at home or medical institution, the presence of skilled birth attendant during delivery, birth weight of the baby and use of postnatal care.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, University of Kalyani, India

PI/PDs: Bidisha Lahiri

University of Kalyani, India:Prasenjit Sarkhel


Intertemporal preference as a candidate for explaining differences in gender specific outcomes

The bigger share of child-care responsibilities usually lies with women and the resulting labor market implications have been studied in the literature. The current paper extends this research by hypothesizing two different equilibria for women demarcated by childcare costs. Women are less likely to pursue a job if the cost of child-care exceeds the salary earned. While this might seem optimum in the short run, there are long run costs in terms of experience forfeited. Women who start at a lower wage job are more likely to get stuck in the equilibrium described above, while women who start at higher paid jobs circumvent the above situation. This widens the experience gap and in turn the income gap.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PD: Bidisha Lahiri


“Entrepreneurial Effect of Income Program in India”

We examine the impact of on an ambitious employment and income guarantee program for the poor in India on family entrepreneurial activities. We find that participation in this program affects family entrepreneurship both at the extensive and intensive margins, and the effect is heterogenous across the scale of the family business endeavor.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Bidisha Lahiri, Richard Daramola


“Role of product life cycle in tempering international trade's impact on Indonesian Firms”

Our paper empirically examines how the effect of international trade on Indonesian firms varies by the length of product life cycle and R&D activities of different industries. Our exploration is based on theoretical models that predict trade and outsourcing/FDI affect firms in developing countries differently compared to firms in developed countries like the USA.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, University of Texas at Arlington

PI/PDs: Bidisha Lahiri

University of Texas at Arlington: Mahmut Yasar


Pecking Order? Oil and Gas Development and Bird Species Richness on the High Plains of Colorado

This paper examines the effect of this development on ecological outcomes, in particular breeding bird populations between 2003 and 2014 in the High Plains region of Colorado and Kansas. We find that aggregate measures including bird species richness and a bird diversity index are surprisingly unaffected by oil and gas development. Future work is focused on examining the effects of oil and gas drilling on particular bird species that are predominant in the high plains.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

PI/PDs: Karen Maguire

University of Tennessee, Knoxville: Monica Papes


Do Workers Benefit from Resource Booms in Their Home State? Evidence from the Fracking Era

This paper examines the effects of the mid-200s oil and gas boom on individual employment and earnings within states. Our analytical technique allows us to differentiate the effects of the boom on workers in the oil and gas industry and long-term state residents who work in other industries. We find statistically significant and economically meaningful positive effects for workers from the oil and gas boom. These gains accrue to both the oil and gas workers and long-term state residents.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, Iowa State University, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

PI/PDs: Karen Maguire, Shruti Sengupta

Iowa State University: John V. Winters

Southwestern University of Finance and Economics: Zhengyu Cai


Cap and Trade and CO2 Emissions: Was the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) Effective?

This project uses SCM analysis to investigate whether the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the first multi-state cap-and-trade program in the United States has led to reductions in CO2 emissions. We will also examine the effects on electricity prices and the relative increase in natural gas in electricity generation. Popular literature suggests the program has been successful at reducing emissions, but there is limited empirical evidence to date.

Sponsors: Oklahoma State University, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

PI/PDs: Karen Maguire

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Abdul Munasib


1889 Oklahoma Land Run: Guthrie – The Territorial Capital is Founded

Guthrie, the original capital of Oklahoma, was established overnight. This resulted in a robust business community by 1890. This project examines the job and demographic characteristics of Guthrie’s first business district.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Karen Maguire, Jonathan Harrington


Household Debt and Meeting Fertility Intentions

This study examines how housing and non-housing debt impacts the probability that women meet their fertility intentions. Housing debt increases fertility for those planning to have children soon and decreases fertility for those not planning to. Housing debt also decreases the probability women have fewer children than they intended. Greater non-housing debt, on the other hand, reduces the probability of having children in the short-term, but only noticeably for non-married women. However, this reduction is not generally related to a higher probability that women have fewer total children over their lifetime than originally intended - unless those debts persist into their mid-thirties.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Michael Morris, Karina Shreffler


Neighborhood Violence, Family Stress and College Intentions

Student intentions regarding college attendance not only strongly predict earning a higher degree, but also has been found to differ by income and race. We suggest that exposure to neighborhood violence and family stress have negative impacts on college intentions. Using data collected from an in-depth interview of 206 largely minority (70%) 4th through 12th grade students, and their parents. In estimating indirect effects of neighborhood violence and family stress on college intentions, we find that neighborhood violence has a negative effect through school GPA. Family stress has a negative indirect effect through how much an adolescent enjoys school while parental involvement has a positive impact.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Michael Morris, Michael Criss


Improved IV Estimation of Vertical Property Tax Inequity

In this paper we propose a new IV estimator to be used in detecting vertical property tax inequity. We conduct Monte Carlo experiments to evaluate the bias of this estimator in comparison to traditional linear and log-linear regression based estimators. We find that the new estimator is more robust to bias across alternative average assessment ratios, even in the presences of errors-in-variables, than the IV estimator suggested by Clapp (1990) and frequently used for such purposes. Furthermore, the new instrument allows for an investigation into how strong the measurement error in sales prices relative to that in assessed values must be for the results to change from those of the traditional methods.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Michael Morris, Bill Dare


Creating a Task Domain for Undergraduate Economics.

This paper lists task domain for undergraduate economics courses. In addition, each task includes a conditions and standard criterion. Eventually, the skills mapping will identify where economic tasks are initially and subsequently taught during a degree program. In addition, they serve as a record for skills development.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma

Pl/PD: William McLean


A Longitudinal Assessment of Economic Learning.

This paper evaluates how different factors affect the absorption and retention of basic micro and macro concepts among undergraduate students at Oklahoma State University. We are going to track each student over different semesters and incorporate student fixed effects to remove impact of prior student characteristics on student learning. The paper will investigate how variables like majoring in business, class size, and instructor characteristics affect the absorption of economic concepts. Since learning is cumulative over time, the paper will explore gains (absorption) or loss (erosion) of knowledge.

Sponsor: State of Oklahoma

Pl/PD: William McLean


What goes up must come down? The recent economic cycles of the four most oil and gas dominated states in the US

The recent boom and bust in the US oil and natural gas sector provide a unique opportunity to assess whether the impacts of energy development are symmetric across the differing phases of the energy cycle. Using the synthetic control method, the study examined the four most oil and gas dominated states: Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming. The results reveal differing employment impacts across the four states in both the short and long run and asymmetry during the boom-bust cycle. The findings are suggested at least in part to be connected to state and local government expenditures.

Sponsor: Oklahoma State University

PI/PDs: Dan Rickman, Hongbo Wang


The Fiscal State-Dependent Effects of Capital Income Tax Cuts

Using the post-WWII data of U.S. federal corporate tax changes, this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low. To explore the mechanisms that can drive fiscal state-dependent tax effects, the paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with regime-switching fiscal policy. It finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment, whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase.

Sponsors: State of Oklahoma, International Monetary Fund

PI/PDs: Wenyi Shen

International Monetary Fund: Alexandra Fotiou, Shu-Chun Yang


Fiscal Limit and Fiscal Space in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Normal Times vs the Zero Lower Bound

In this paper we study fiscal policy effects for countries in a monetary union with different levels of public debt. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a two-country monetary union, calibrated to match Spain and Germany. The costs of fiscal consolidation in the high-debt country are diminished when this consolidation improves its debt sustainability prospects. Fiscal consolidations in both countries decrease real interest rates and amplify the reduction in risk premium in the highly-indebted country, improving union-wide output in the long run, but at the cost of lower output in the low debt country in the short term.

Sponsors: State of Oklahoma, University of Valencia, Bank of Spain

PI/PDs: Wenyi Shen

University of Valencia: Javier Andrés

Bank of Spain: Pablo Burriel

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